Guatemala City — According to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, despite the fact that multiple polling stations have yet to be counted, the trend is definitive: Sandra Torres, of the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, and Bernardo Arévalo, from Movimiento Semilla (or Seed Movement), are headed to the second round of Guatemala’s presidential elections. Both candidates identify as center-left and both prioritize social justice. However, their track records tell another story.
Well-acquainted with Guatemalan politics, this is the third time Sandra Torres will participate in a second round of presidential elections. In 2015, she lost to Jimmy Morales and in 2019 she was defeated by Alejandro Giammattei, Guatemala’s current president. Sandra Torres is also the ex-wife of former President Álvaro Colom (2008-2012). She has been embroiled in numerous controversies and her campaign has been accused of illicit financing. Torres has also been accused of electoral fraud and having ties to drug trafficking. Her platform includes doing away with VAT on breadbasket goods, militarizing prisons and increasing the education budget to the equivalent of 5% of Guatemala’s GDP. She identifies as a Christian and an advocate for social justice; and assures that as a woman, she deserves to win the elections this time around. Torres won 15.78% of the vote in this first round.
As for Bernardo Arévalo, he’s running as the anti-system candidate. His numbers in the polls were lackluster and many saw him as a solid candidate but with no real shot at a win. With a political career in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and as a deputy in the country’s Congress, Arevalo’s platform hinges on continuing the legacy his father, former President Juan José Arévalo (1945-1951). Environmental investments, strong sanctions against companies that put their commercial interests first and hijack waterways, a network of publicly funded pharmacies with lower prices and education reform are among his main proposals. Arévalo has campaigned as a different sort of candidate, removed the establishment, educated and capable of governing, with an impeccable record and interested in listening to the young constituency. Socially he declares himself progressive. His party, the Seed Movement, is made up of many young people looking to change the system. Arévalo won 11.8% of the Guatemalan vote, securing him a spot in the second round.
Fed up with politics
But the percentage of null votes was even higher than those cast for Torres and Arévalo, at 17.39%. Many Guatemalans chose to use their invalid votes as a sign of protest and distrust in the electoral system. Many took the encouragement of former candidate Carlos Pineda to do so to heart, after he went from first in the polls to being barred from participating by electoral authorities. In terms of forecasts for the second round in August, the only thing that’s clear is that the right has lost its opportunity and now will have to decide between the left they know or a new left; a “safe” left – which will maintain the status quo of corruption, or an unknown left, which could mean less corruption but a new, very defined ideological tendency of its own. Some say that, despite the large anti-vote Sandra Torres generated, the fear on the left is such that she could become the new candidate on the right. The votes that were cast for Zury Ríos and Edmond Mulet, two names synonymous with old politics, will probably now go quietly towards Sandra Torres, despite their many ideological differences.
Despite the uncertainty, for many these results are a success for Guatemala’s democracy in and of themselves, since it’s the first time a new candidate from a minority party (and without hefty campaign debts), has managed to get this far. However, the null votes, the dispersion of votes, and the low voter participation (in addition to the riots and burning of polling stations and ballots in some parts of the country, etc.) point to the opposite. Now, Guatemalans will have to wait until August 20 to define the political future of their country.
Translated from Spanish by Lucia K. Maher